Seems to be some controversy over the current market value. Let's have an open discussion

We have the Game Value Now values from recent ebay sales.

http://gamevaluenow.com/nintendo-...

Do we have any evidence of private sales figures, other than hearsay?

I know of two private sales for $25k.

It was me selling one to my cat and then buying it back, but hey, they count.

That was like 2-3 years ago. Who cares about dates!

Bahaha. Off to a good start

I was told at PRGE that my cash offers were a no go because they knew of several private sales that were 10k+.

I know some are joking about this, I am not. I straight up had to have this conversation because I'm being told there is a secret market I don't know about where these carts are selling for 3-6k more than on say, ebay or the actual sales that do happen in public at cons or expos where its well known what it sold for and who it ended up with. Nope, those are all well below what its really selling at in this other market.

I have no doubt there are sales happening that we don't hear of, but the only thing buyers making an informed decision have to go off of are public sales.

It went up to $10,000 a year or two ago and then JJ sold his on his site for about $7200 earlier this year, it took a pretty bad dive. Now it seems to have climbed back up around $9000. There's absolutely no way it's worth $12,500 right now.

So, am I right to assume that $9500-$10K would be a very fair offer for one with a nice label?

Here is the famous "headless one" at $10,499 BIN that's just sitting:

s://www.ebay.com/itm/Family-Fun-F...

Here's the thing with private sales- yes they exist, but I have realized over the years that you can't use those as a real measuring stick for current public value. For example, I knew of both a 1K above market and 2K above market private sale for SE some time back.

Want to know what drove those 2 sales? A guy telling a seller that he would pay X price for one (2K above market), and said seller offering a collector 1K above market for theirs, knowing full well it was going to be the easiest grand they ever made. So through one acquisition you have 2 new somewhat skewed price points.

So you can say you sold something for 100K in private, and hey, you probably did. But until the public sales catch up, you're not gonna see that 100K for the same item.

Your patience will pay off eventually.  There will be somebody that just wants a quick easy sale to a trusted buyer at current market value. 

(but not at 4 grand)

I would love to own an authentic one someday. For now this will do. 😀

What the? How did it just perfectly rip out within the outline of his head like that? 
Did someone do this on purpose? Was his head used for a collage or something?
 

Probably a kid with a razor and too much boredom.

 

That headless one is Daves right? If I am gonna spend 10K on a cart I will wait for one with a good label.

That one is infamous though, giving it a unique signature and therefor collectible. Certain items in the hobby are like that. Headless Stadium Events, "Mario" NWC, Paul's VGA 10 Super Mario Bros. Same can be said for all the known gold NWC's since they're all handmade and each label is in a slightly different spot, but they're not well documented enough yet.

Whats the origin of the headless SE?
 

Would you guys stop blowing up my spot! Lol   I been saving for that headless one for about a year and a half now!!!

 

If you stumble across a few more of those Atari lots you just might get there!
 

This conversation is always interesting. As much as people don't want to hear that it is valued around 10-13k at the time, it's happening. I know atleast 2 that have have sold in that range. Also, I traded my extra SE to guy for 13 in trade about year and a half ago In a private setting.

I have seen that headless SE, it's pretty cool l, last show I went to at the retropaloosa dallas event. Last year I also saw Se sell for 7500 at show, so SE does fluctuate high and low at times and more than often, I guess it comes down too what people want to pay at the time.

Question?? What is manual and and box value?

Keep it coming fellas, love this conversation.

Market value is simply the amount something will sell for on the open market. Many factors contribute to this. Prior sales are absolutely important, but are also just one variable in the equation. That is what makes this different. For a non-commodity item with low quantity, the market value is lot more unpredictable and strange than a [I'll call it] commodity cart / high frequency traded cart like a random SMB cart or something.

For high-value items like this, there are so many things to take into consideration....how badly the seller wants to sell it, how badly the buyer wants to buy it, the condition of the cart itself, and many other factors.

So, let's say that there have been two sales over the past year of $10,000 and $12,000. Several months later one is up for sale. Well, the market value of the cart is not a de-facto $10K, $11K, $12K, etc. Sure, that is helpful information and a piece of the puzzle. But what about carts that DIDN'T sell? I don't know if there have been any, but as an example, if in January one sells for $10K and in February one sells for $12K and then March through October one is sitting at $12K and doesn't sell, well obviously 12K isn't as solid as perhaps previously thought. So you can't just look at the one that sold in February because one has been on the open market since then and not selling. [I'll assume similar condition for this example]

I'm not saying those numbers are meaningless, but they are just one piece of the puzzle.

Also, if random rich person just doesn't wanna deal with haggling and treats $100s like pennies, and decides to throw $20K at a cart that just happens to be the right place at the right time, well that doesn't necessarily define the value either.  

At the end of the day, it is difficult and there is no clearly defined market value.  There can't be on rarer/low-frequency sales such as this.  The fact that all of us here have different ideas of value and which of these factors is more important, is an example that it can't really be easily determined.

OH well, these are just some random thoughts.  I don't really have much skin in this game as I have no desire for a SE cart, pretty much ever.

That is one of the most frustrating parts of this hobby to me. Sadikyo is exactly right, a prior sale is useful information, but so many people have this notion that every record sale is the new floor for the value, and that is simply not always the case.

I tend to agree. If we took those private sales as the floor for value, then should we also include the sales that take place at yard sales for $5? It's all subjective.

I feel like that is a crock if shit. So because everyone knows about the headless stadium events, suddenly that makes it worth more? The reason it's changed so many hands is because it would be cheaper than a mint one and people buy it as a placeholder, realize they'd rather a mint one and sell it to partially fund that. I don't care who had it or how many people had it, you will ALWAYS pay more for one in better condition. But that's just my opinion I guess.

The problem with private sales is that they're private. We don't know what exactly happened. You say you heard they were going for 13k. Maybe there was one that sold for 18k that you never heard about. Does that mean they are worth 18k now? The next private sale goes for $7500 because of a favor. Are they now worth that?

Of course not.

They are worth whatever the seller and buyer agree upon. The open market sets the general negotiating setting. After that, it simply depends on how much one side wants it and how much the other side wants the cash.

In a private setting, you might as well say they're worth a unicorn and two Sasquatches.