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Jul 30 at 11:29:49 AM
arch_8ngel (68)
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Originally posted by: jonebone


GME rents their space and most leases left are in the 18 month time frame so it's easy for them to exit low performing locations. MS and Sony both confirmed physical media next gen and backwards compatibility, so GME will thrive when the HW sales take off. Management also doubled down and did a stock buyback ($10M? $20M? can't recall) at $5.20 about a month ago. Everytime I read an article comparing it to Blockbuster I just shake my head as the analyst didn't really do much "research" when publishing their article.

I guess how I'm seeing it is that while they are definitely going to need to shed some retail space, I'm skeptical that they are going to manage to consolidate the sales from the lower performing stores into the stores they keep.  i.e. they'd be cutting losses on rent and store operation, but total revenue would probably be dropping since there is a limit on how far out their way a person is going for a place like Gamestop before they just buy it online cheaper.


I'd never suggest that the place was full-blown-streaming-era Blockbuster today.
But there are certainly a lot of similarities between a glorified video-game pawn shop and early-Netflix-era Blockbuster.

Blockbuster had tons of time and money that could have been used to adapt, and they failed to do so.

Gamestop still has at least one console generation left before they are just selling previous-generation-only.  So they have some time to work it out.


That said... will be interesting to see where their stock goes in the meantime.


But I wouldn't exactly call sub-$5 "irrational" market behavior when the stock was very recently slashed their sizable dividend to zero.
(though at the same time, given your previously stated average price, I can't really fault you for hanging in there, since the difference between your current loss and risking riding it to bankruptcy is pretty negligible in the scheme of things to where it could be worth the gamble)


 

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Edited: 07/30/2019 at 11:31 AM by arch_8ngel

Jul 30 at 12:25:15 PM
dra600n (300)
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Originally posted by: captmorgandrinker

Originally posted by: arch_8ngel
 
Originally posted by: captmorgandrinker
 
Originally posted by: arch_8ngel

GME below $4...
 
What was it when it seemed like a "decent buy"?

Also, are Gamestop and Thinkgeek two separate stock entities?  
I assume Thinkgeek is fully rolled into Gamestop at this point.

I don't have an answer for your first question.

 

That'll be the only thing that could save them, if Thinkgeek can finally get their formula right instead of having seemingly half of the stuff they release end up on the clearance shelf.
 



I don't think TG will save GameStop.

When I went to pick up DQ Builders 2, they had the newest MTG stuff for sale (somewhat new to this area - never seen magic cards sold there). Anyway, they were nearly double the price for some of their boxes vs the cost of a standard booster box. Only the folks who don't price check will buy these things at those prices. Like, 15 boosters for $50. You can get 36 for $110 after taxes from your local LGS (cheaper online).

Also, TG has to compete not only with local shops, but big box retailers. Too niche imo to keep an entire brick and mortar store afloat.

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Aug 01 at 12:04:30 PM
arch_8ngel (68)
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Originally posted by: arch_8ngel

Anyone been watching the craziness of BYND?

They have a great product, but their valuation is just stupid.
(and read some news that they are in the process of setting up a second offering to let some of their insiders cut in line on their lock-up period that wasn't originally going to expire until October)
 

So the news dropped today that the 2nd offering is happening at $160.

Going to be an ugly ride for anyone who bought this one after the first day or two following the IPO.
 

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Edited: 08/01/2019 at 12:05 PM by arch_8ngel

Aug 01 at 4:17:35 PM
arch_8ngel (68)
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And Trump's tweet today took a big shit all over GME (down 4%+ while the rest of the market is more like 1% on average).

Despite thinking this stock is near-worthless 10-years-from-today, there might be some short-term money to be made over the next 4 - 6 months.

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Aug 09 at 3:02:45 PM
arch_8ngel (68)
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GME currently at $3.65... and it gets a mention from "Zachs Equity Research" as a "top ranked income stock" despite no longer having a dividend!  

Don't know who that group is, but they must have an algorithm that just sweeps ticker data without cross-checking.
(GME is commonly listed as still having its dividend -- which would now be at 39.9%!!! -- despite them canceling their dividend accelerating their price collapse)



And it seems like BYND is creeping toward to the $160 that will match up with the second offering.

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Edited: 08/09/2019 at 03:04 PM by arch_8ngel

Aug 09 at 8:06:09 PM
Daniel_Doyce (0)
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I'm tempted to do some puts on GME, but I am kicking myself for not doing it back when it was $15 and the ridiculous dividend and newly announced "strategy" were huge red flags.

On a happy note, anyone got some stock tips for us? I keep waffling on GE but may buy some if it dips below 9 again. I'll have some time in November to review some insurance stocks in detail and see if anything looks good.

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Aug 09 at 8:35:10 PM
Californication (34)

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Originally posted by: Daniel_Doyce

I'm tempted to do some puts on GME, but I am kicking myself for not doing it back when it was $15 and the ridiculous dividend and newly announced "strategy" were huge red flags.

On a happy note, anyone got some stock tips for us? I keep waffling on GE but may buy some if it dips below 9 again. I'll have some time in November to review some insurance stocks in detail and see if anything looks good.





Hi, I'm just curious, I'm not an investor yet, but am trying figure out how things work. When you get a put option, what kind of increments do they have on the range of when the other party has to buy. Like do you have to expect the stock to drop within a month, six months? I guess I'm just trying to figure out how expensive it is to hold something like that open.


Edited: 08/09/2019 at 08:36 PM by Californication

Aug 09 at 8:43:02 PM
Daniel_Doyce (0)
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Originally posted by: Californication
 
Originally posted by: Daniel_Doyce

I'm tempted to do some puts on GME, but I am kicking myself for not doing it back when it was $15 and the ridiculous dividend and newly announced "strategy" were huge red flags.

On a happy note, anyone got some stock tips for us? I keep waffling on GE but may buy some if it dips below 9 again. I'll have some time in November to review some insurance stocks in detail and see if anything looks good.



Hi, I'm just curious, I'm not an investor yet, but am trying figure out how things work. When you get a put option, what kind of increments do they have on the range of when the other party has to buy. Like do you have to expect the stock to drop within a month, six months? I guess I'm just trying to figure out how expensive it is to hold something like that open.
You can buy options for various time periods from a day to a couple of year, and the prices varies with the length. Also important is American vs. European options, with the former allowing you to exercise the option at any time instead of just at the expiration date (and therefore the American comes at a premium).

If you're bored, you can check out the Black-Scholes option pricing formula and see how the different parts move  
 

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Aug 09 at 8:54:45 PM
Californication (34)

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I get the inputs on Black-Scholes, but my books always say something like, it's very complicated, beyond the scope of this book, and requires an actuary. Lol. I guess I'll have to play around on a site or somewhere were you can actually purchase derivatives to get a feel for it.

I know theres a lot of variables, but just for arguments sake, let me ask you this, when Gamestop was at $15, if you could go back in time, how far out do you think you might have put an option? Do you just look at the prices and make an estimated guess?

(Sry, hope this isn't a stupid question)


Edited: 08/09/2019 at 09:09 PM by Californication

Aug 09 at 10:36:51 PM
VGS_captmorgandrinker (572)
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Originally posted by: arch_8ngel

GME currently at $3.65... and it gets a mention from "Zachs Equity Research" as a "top ranked income stock" despite no longer having a dividend!  

Don't know who that group is, but they must have an algorithm that just sweeps ticker data without cross-checking.
(GME is commonly listed as still having its dividend -- which would now be at 39.9%!!! -- despite them canceling their dividend accelerating their price collapse)



And it seems like BYND is creeping toward to the $160 that will match up with the second offering.


You'd think they'd be doing better after doubling the price of used DuckTales Remastered and selling like hotcakes.

Aug 09 at 11:02:35 PM
Daniel_Doyce (0)
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Originally posted by: Californication

I get the inputs on Black-Scholes, but my books always say something like, it's very complicated, beyond the scope of this book, and requires an actuary. Lol. I guess I'll have to play around on a site or somewhere were you can actually purchase derivatives to get a feel for it. I know theres a lot of variables, but just for arguments sake, let me ask you this, when Gamestop was at $15, if you could go back in time, how far out do you think you might have put an option? Do you just look at the prices and make an estimated guess? (Sry, hope this isn't a stupid question)
You can get into a lot of trouble with derivatives. If you haven't invested at all yet, maybe start with regular stocks first.

 

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Aug 12 at 10:18:45 AM
arch_8ngel (68)
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Originally posted by: captmorgandrinker
 
Originally posted by: arch_8ngel

GME currently at $3.65... and it gets a mention from "Zachs Equity Research" as a "top ranked income stock" despite no longer having a dividend!  

Don't know who that group is, but they must have an algorithm that just sweeps ticker data without cross-checking.
(GME is commonly listed as still having its dividend -- which would now be at 39.9%!!! -- despite them canceling their dividend accelerating their price collapse)



And it seems like BYND is creeping toward to the $160 that will match up with the second offering.


You'd think they'd be doing better after doubling the price of used DuckTales Remastered and selling like hotcakes.

And they just broke through $3.50.  


 

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Aug 12 at 10:59:13 AM
dra600n (300)
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I sold all my GME stock and all I got was a half eaten moon pie.

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Aug 12 at 11:12:01 AM
arch_8ngel (68)
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Originally posted by: dra600n

I sold all my GME stock and all I got was a half eaten moon pie.
Nah, $3.50 is still an entire box of Moonpies at the Asian grocery store.  Don't sell it short!    

 

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Aug 12 at 11:38:38 AM
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jonebone (554)
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It's a profitable company the current valuation is laughable, especially on the heels of next gen. Market as a whole is prime to take a beating though, down market makes everything go down.

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Aug 12 at 11:43:46 AM
dra600n (300)
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Originally posted by: arch_8ngel
 
Originally posted by: dra600n

I sold all my GME stock and all I got was a half eaten moon pie.
Nah, $3.50 is still an entire box of Moonpies at the Asian grocery store.  Don't sell it short!    

 

Now that’s some fine advice  
 

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Aug 12 at 11:58:20 AM
arch_8ngel (68)
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Originally posted by: jonebone

It's a profitable company the current valuation is laughable, especially on the heels of next gen. Market as a whole is prime to take a beating though, down market makes everything go down.





So are you planning to buy some more?

You could double your share count for about 25 percent of your current basis, right?

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Aug 12 at 7:57:53 PM
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Jonebone, I think arch is being a bit dickish, but I am curious why you think the current valuation is laughable. Can you point some industry trends that are in their favor? "Next gen consoles out soon" doesn't seem like a particularly strong argument and isn't really anything Gamestop can capitalize on better than any other retailer.

When it gets down to $2 I may think about buying some in case there are some dead cat bounces in the next few years.

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Aug 12 at 8:05:30 PM
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Well considering their literal cash value per share is $4.90, yes a $3.50 a share value is laughable. If they shut their doors tomorrow and liquidated every single thing they'd pull $6+ a share easy.

Either way, the next generation being backwards compatible props up the used game market. GME nixed the dividend but bought back around $23M in shares at $5.20. Thatd exactly what you want to see, a company who puts money where there mouth is. They also sold off all those phone related businesses and decided to focus on their core of video games.

So yes, $3.50 is absolutely laughable. I'm not putting anymore money into what had panned out to be a bad investment. Thankfully retro video games have done quite well for me this year, as ironic as that is.

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Aug 13 at 8:47:04 AM
arch_8ngel (68)
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Originally posted by: jonebone

Well considering their literal cash value per share is $4.90, yes a $3.50 a share value is laughable. If they shut their doors tomorrow and liquidated every single thing they'd pull $6+ a share easy.
 
Has this ever happened in the history of the stock market?

Or is it more realistic that a corporate raider would show up, extract the cash, put them into additional debt, and allow them to go bankrupt with nothing for the shareholders?


 

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Aug 13 at 8:52:49 AM
tbone3969 (67)
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I'm thinking of getting in at $3.50. Seems it will bounce back once or twice before folding, no?

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Aug 13 at 9:05:15 AM
arch_8ngel (68)
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Originally posted by: tbone3969

I'm thinking of getting in at $3.50. Seems it will bounce back once or twice before folding, no?
If there was a consensus on that, then it would already be priced higher    

Whatever you do, just have a clear exit strategy. (both up and downside)
In Jonebone's case, a stop-loss wouldn't have really saved him, since it was an instantaneous price crash due to dropping the dividend -- but one could hope from here on out it would be unlikely to move more than 5-10% within a trading day.

There may well be the "easy" opportunity for it to bounce back to $4 (or higher) before it falls through $3.
But nobody knows    

 

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Aug 13 at 9:30:45 AM
VGS_captmorgandrinker (572)
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Originally posted by: jonebone

Well considering their literal cash value per share is $4.90, yes a $3.50 a share value is laughable. If they shut their doors tomorrow and liquidated every single thing they'd pull $6+ a share easy.

Either way, the next generation being backwards compatible props up the used game market. GME nixed the dividend but bought back around $23M in shares at $5.20. Thatd exactly what you want to see, a company who puts money where there mouth is. They also sold off all those phone related businesses and decided to focus on their core of video games.

So yes, $3.50 is absolutely laughable. I'm not putting anymore money into what had panned out to be a bad investment. Thankfully retro video games have done quite well for me this year, as ironic as that is.

I wouldn't trust pre-production word on that.   Look at how the PS3 ended up (or the nightmare the Xbox One was supposed to be with games locked into a console).
 

Aug 13 at 9:54:19 AM
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Is this where I post what I bought from the proceeds of my GME short???

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WTB: Please help me find the following items
Hurricanes and Super Copa Boxes

 


Aug 13 at 9:55:58 AM
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Originally posted by: doner24

Is this where I post what I bought from the proceeds of my GME short???

Yes...  lol


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