NA » Long Term price trend?

Long Term price trend? franchises vs unreleased games

Aug 14, 2012 at 1:31:48 PM

Bronty (65)

(Dan M) < Bonk >

Posts: 18758 - Joined: 11/27/2006

Canada

Profile

Just curious on everyone's thoughts about this.

Personally I think if proto collecting grows any, the current focus on "differences" and "unreleased games" is going to dwindle.

Sure, its an interesting aspect of proto collecting but at the end of the day if your copy of family feud has major differences or is even a *gasp* unreleased sequel, who the heck will ever care outside of the tiniest circle of people?

I can't help but feel that as time marches on games with premiums based on being unreleased or based on differences from retail will grow in price much slower than protos of big franchise titles.

This is something I've thought for many years and I guess the zelda proto sale kind of reminded me. Sealed collecting was this way early on too. There are certainly rares and semi rares that really haven't done much price wise while the big franchises and black boxes have done great. Some obscure stuff has done well too (and become less obscure in the process) but there were definitely titles left behind.

To sum it up, current value system aside I'd much rather have, oh, a contra proto with zero differences than some unreleased title like war on wheels or arcadia.

Thoughts?

(ducks the rotten eggs)

-------------------------

WTB Cdn sealed black boxes, sealed Cdn first party titles. I.e. the "mattel" Cdn boxes with both french and english. Mainly black boxes, zelda, link, and tyson, but let me know what you have. I am interested in anything I don't already have!

Edited: 08/14/2012 at 01:33 PM by Bronty

Aug 14, 2012 at 2:58:05 PM

VGS_MrMark0673 (455)

(Mark Nolan) < Master Higgins >

Posts: 8031 - Joined: 02/20/2007

Massachusetts

Profile

Being the only person on the planet to own both Arcadia VI and a copy of War on Wheels protos at the same time, I feel obligated to respond...

So far, one person has stepped up and paid serious cash for a proto. This one person happened to have purchased a proto for a high profile series. If a trend follows, it would likely stem from there. Had that same singular person puchased an unreleasd game, I'd expect the market to follow there to start.

However, protos =/= sealed games. A vast majority of protos are in single digit known numbers, and I'd estimate maybe 50% as unique copies. I'd think that the markets of both will act very differently (as they have since I've been collecting).

-------------------------

www.videogamesage.com...

Aug 14, 2012 at 3:17:11 PM

Bronty (65)

(Dan M) < Bonk >

Posts: 18758 - Joined: 11/27/2006

Canada

Profile

Originally posted by: MrMark0673

Being the only person on the planet to own both Arcadia VI and a copy of War on Wheels protos at the same time, I feel obligated to respond...

So far, one person has stepped up and paid serious cash for a proto. This one person happened to have purchased a proto for a high profile series. If a trend follows, it would likely stem from there. Had that same singular person puchased an unreleasd game, I'd expect the market to follow there to start.

However, protos =/= sealed games. A vast majority of protos are in single digit known numbers, and I'd estimate maybe 50% as unique copies. I'd think that the markets of both will act very differently (as they have since I've been collecting).

LOL, sorry I didn't know you owned both or either.

I understand its a different market, I was just trying to draw an analogy and maybe that confused the meat of my message (umm sounds dirty) which is....

right now, people value differences and unreleased over the game itself. Should they? I know people DO and clearly you do and that is fine and please be clear I am not attacking that in any way. I am just suggesting we may see change.

There are two reasons to like a proto as I see it.

1) the game itself - franchises etc
2) differences/unreleased

I just see 1) as being more compelling than 2) on a long term basis.

As you know, I'm not active in this market and don't have the level of knowledge you do about the current market etc. But on a big picture basis I think the market's current pricing structure is flawed.

I have trouble understand how an unreleased game (umm, lets pick one you DON'T own lol) nobody knows of should be worth more than a proto for say, any well known mega man or contra or castlevania game.

(I know that's the current situation and that any such changes would take years, I just don't know that new collectors coming in are going to care about the same things that are currently cared about. Tastes DO change in markets all the time - which is why I brought up the change in the way sealed were collected - not to say the changes will be the same, but to say that change WILL come and some items that are prized now may not be in the future, and some items that are NOT prized now, one day will be).

-------------------------

Edited: 08/14/2012 at 03:23 PM by Bronty

Aug 14, 2012 at 3:24:39 PM

Bronty (65)

(Dan M) < Bonk >

Posts: 18758 - Joined: 11/27/2006

Canada

Profile

I know this is all theoretical, no right or wrong answer, and ultimately kind of an exercise in mental masturbation. I just find that in most markets more than *just* rarity is needed for price increases. You need some combination of rarity and something that fuels demand whether that's condition, aesthetic beauty, nostalgia, something.

Is a sprite being blue instead of red enough? It could be, I might be underestimating the demand that fosters, but personally I don't see it as compelling so I am throwing it out there for others' thoughts.

-------------------------

Edited: 08/14/2012 at 03:26 PM by Bronty

Aug 14, 2012 at 3:36:48 PM

VGS_MrMark0673 (455)

(Mark Nolan) < Master Higgins >

Posts: 8031 - Joined: 02/20/2007

Massachusetts

Profile

Yup, I'm the only one to own both. Matt and I dug up the second known copy of War on Wheels a few years back.

I guess I wasn't clear either. Unreleased games were always the most expensive. Believe it or not, I personally haven't seen differences in a released game = higher price tag. For example, I bought a Caesar's Palace proto with known differences (and advertised as such) that sat for WEEKS on DP for $50 shipped. Sometimes, copies with differences are more common than those without. Every Blaster Master proto I've seen (including my own) has a level select feature. I'd personally pay more for one without it at this point. I know you'll consistently see people ask if a game has differences in a proto FS thread. You'll also consistently see those people NOT purchase protos. Tire kickers...

As of 2 weeks ago, the "market" for protos was changed completely based on the purchase of one individual. With a single sale to a single person, the record for a public NES proto sale was jumped by a multiple of 20. That proto also happens to not be that of an unreleased game, but that of a high profile series.

To me, it doesn't matter whether you think #2 is the most compelling reason or #1 is the most compelling reason to collect protos. What matters is that one deep pocketed fellow already chose #1, and I see the market following that trend, for the short term at the very least.

If more than one big player steps up to buy protos, and those people are all willing to spend 20x what the items have historically sold for, they're going to dictate what is perceived as the most desirable to the masses. It just seems too easy to predict where the money will go while the money already went...

-------------------------

www.videogamesage.com...

Aug 14, 2012 at 4:06:24 PM

Bronty (65)

(Dan M) < Bonk >

Posts: 18758 - Joined: 11/27/2006

Canada

Profile

Originally posted by: MrMark0673

I guess I wasn't clear either. Unreleased games were always the most expensive. Believe it or not, I personally haven't seen differences in a released game = higher price tag. For example, I bought a Caesar's Palace proto with known differences (and advertised as such) that sat for WEEKS on DP for $50 shipped. Sometimes, copies with differences are more common than those without. Every Blaster Master proto I've seen (including my own) has a level select feature. I'd personally pay more for one without it at this point. I know you'll consistently see people ask if a game has differences in a proto FS thread. You'll also consistently see those people NOT purchase protos. Tire kickers...

that's very interesting... thanks for clarifying! I didn't realize it was that way, but that's how I think it should be. Good to know

-------------------------

Aug 14, 2012 at 4:09:42 PM

Bronty (65)

(Dan M) < Bonk >

Posts: 18758 - Joined: 11/27/2006

Canada

Profile

Originally posted by: MrMark0673

As of 2 weeks ago, the "market" for protos was changed completely based on the purchase of one individual. With a single sale to a single person, the record for a public NES proto sale was jumped by a multiple of 20. That proto also happens to not be that of an unreleased game, but that of a high profile series.

To me, it doesn't matter whether you think #2 is the most compelling reason or #1 is the most compelling reason to collect protos. What matters is that one deep pocketed fellow already chose #1, and I see the market following that trend, for the short term at the very least.

If more than one big player steps up to buy protos, and those people are all willing to spend 20x what the items have historically sold for, they're going to dictate what is perceived as the most desirable to the masses. It just seems too easy to predict where the money will go while the money already went...

well, personally I don't think the one sale changed the market. Jason's prices didn't change much for example, even if he had an easier time selling after the zelda sale.

Now if there were a bunch of sales like that, sure, stuff would totally change, you're right. For example you'd be rich!

But on the assumption that sale was a one-off, I think things will return to more or less to normal after a brief period of instability.

Just like I believe that sealed prices will pretty much return to normal once the retarded bin sales stop.

-------------------------

Edited: 08/14/2012 at 04:12 PM by Bronty

Aug 14, 2012 at 4:12:54 PM

Nostalgizoid! (25)

< Meka Chicken >

Posts: 903 - Joined: 09/04/2008

United States

Profile

I don't think there are very many collectors interested in final build prototypes, regardless of the game. Since prototypes are, astetically, very ugly, I think the gameplay differences are the only thing many people value. Who knows though, I'm a display collector, so to me, Aesthetics > everything else.

Aug 14, 2012 at 4:14:47 PM

Bronty (65)

(Dan M) < Bonk >

Posts: 18758 - Joined: 11/27/2006

Canada

Profile

Originally posted by: VideoGameAntiques

to me, Aesthetics > everything else.

I'm the same way.

-------------------------

Aug 14, 2012 at 4:16:10 PM

Bronty (65)

(Dan M) < Bonk >

Posts: 18758 - Joined: 11/27/2006

Canada

Profile

Originally posted by: VideoGameAntiques

I think the gameplay differences are the only thing many people value.

well, that's the current situation and if that's where it stays then the market stays where it is IMO.

Growth would, I think, require people starting to value the historical aspect, more so than today.

-------------------------

Edited: 08/14/2012 at 04:16 PM by Bronty

Aug 14, 2012 at 4:18:45 PM

Ferris Bueller (231)

(Christian D) < King Solomon >

Posts: 4124 - Joined: 06/15/2011

Texas

Profile

I think it would take a really well known game to see that kind of sale again. Contra I think might be one that would do it. Mike Tyson perhaps. Something of that nature though.

Add the fact that the Zelda was the only copy. It's one of a kind. From reading Cadillac Jack by Larry McMurtry, I believe there is a word for such an item, but I can't recall what it was.

-------------------------

My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Ferris pass out at the Let's Play Gaming Expo last night. I guess it's pretty serious.

Oh, my WTB thread is very popular. The sportos, the motorheads, geeks, sluts, bloods, wastoids, dweebies, Richard craniums - they all adore it. They think it's a righteous thread.
I'd also like to add that I've got my father's gun and a *scorching* price guide for aftermarket Nintendo games.
Between Dragon Warriors and nothing... I'll take Dragon Warriors - for any of my FT/FS/FO items.

Aug 14, 2012 at 4:21:21 PM

VGS_MrMark0673 (455)

(Mark Nolan) < Master Higgins >

Posts: 8031 - Joined: 02/20/2007

Massachusetts

Profile

But being aesthetic collectors, you'd agree that neither one of you would be the type (not personally, but the collector "type") that would be interested in protos.

That single sale absolutely changed the market, at least from the perspective of the casual collector. 2 years ago, if I posed the question of what would be the most valuable type of proto, the answer would be an almost uniform "unreleased game" response. Ask people the same question now, and I'd bet there would be many, many more people stating "protos of a cornerstone series".

The market is very different know based on that one sale, and I can tell you without a doubt that I haven't benefited personally at all from it.

Edit: Case in point: The post directly above this one

-------------------------

www.videogamesage.com...

Edited: 08/14/2012 at 04:22 PM by VGS_MrMark0673

Aug 14, 2012 at 4:25:55 PM

Bronty (65)

(Dan M) < Bonk >

Posts: 18758 - Joined: 11/27/2006

Canada

Profile

good point

-------------------------

Aug 14, 2012 at 4:26:43 PM

Bronty (65)

(Dan M) < Bonk >

Posts: 18758 - Joined: 11/27/2006

Canada

Profile

still, as you said earlier, its not the tirekickers that drive the market... the general perception has changed, but will that change the real market? THat's the $64 question...

-------------------------

Aug 14, 2012 at 6:44:01 PM

Ferris Bueller (231)

(Christian D) < King Solomon >

Posts: 4124 - Joined: 06/15/2011

Texas

Profile

Originally posted by: MrMark0673

Edit: Case in point: The post directly above this one

I hope I'm not stepping on toes here. I'm obviously late to the game and as I said, no nothing of protos. I'm basing what I'm saying on this idea: I don't think the person who bought Zelda is a proto collector. Perhaps not even a hardcore game collector, period.

I might buy a proto, but it would have to be something I hold dear to me. I wouldn't just go buy... let's say, Where's Waldo proto, because I thought that game was lame. But a Megaman proto, that would make my eyebrow raise and ponder selling my soul.

As for cornerstone vs unreleased... A few years ago, wouldn't a proto of an unrealeased game be a bigger deal because of the lack of repros? I mean, why brag about having the proto for... Final Fantasy 2 nowadays, when I can go to the NES Dump or a number of other people and get a copy myself. Dumping roms or whatever they do may have brought down prices on protos of unreleased games.

I think that thought, that you have the only copy, is what fetched such a high price. That, and a shit ton of free PR. That auction was all over the place. Where wasn't I reading about it?

Aug 14, 2012 at 6:58:10 PM

Nostalgizoid! (25)

< Meka Chicken >

Posts: 903 - Joined: 09/04/2008

United States

Profile

Originally posted by: Ferris Bueller

I don't think the person who bought Zelda is a proto collector.

I would think the same thing, which would make me believe that this sale may be an outlier.

My guess of the most likely scenario is that a weathly and geeky individual (say, for example, a Joss Whedon type) sees the article on Yahoo mentioning the Zelda proto and thinks "that'll make a cool conversation piece!", and picks it up for what they consider chump change.

Originally posted by: MrMark0673
2 years ago, if I posed the question of what would be the most valuable type of proto, the answer would be an almost uniform "unreleased game" response.

Actually, I think most people would still agree that the most valuable type of proto would be an unreleased first party Nintendo game (Kid Kirby maybe?). Barring something like that, I'd say it'd be a first party Nintendo title with Significant differences (that Dr. Mario proto called "Virus", for example). Then again, you're much more of an expert on this particular collecting niche, so what do I know .

Aug 14, 2012 at 8:38:12 PM

VGS_MrMark0673 (455)

(Mark Nolan) < Master Higgins >

Posts: 8031 - Joined: 02/20/2007

Massachusetts

Profile

Originally posted by: VideoGameAntiques

Originally posted by: Ferris Bueller

I don't think the person who bought Zelda is a proto collector.

I would think the same thing, which would make me believe that this sale may be an outlier.

As of right now, it most certainly is. The billion dollar question is whether it changed the market for protos. Time will tell on that one.

Originally posted by: VideoGameAntiques

Originally posted by: Ferris Bueller

I don't think the person who bought Zelda is a proto collector.

My guess of the most likely scenario is that a weathly and geeky individual (say, for example, a Joss Whedon type) sees the article on Yahoo mentioning the Zelda proto and thinks "that'll make a cool conversation piece!", and picks it up for what they consider chump change.

Quite possibly, but it poses the question: Will others follow suit?

Originally posted by: VideoGameAntiques

Originally posted by: MrMark0673
2 years ago, if I posed the question of what would be the most valuable type of proto, the answer would be an almost uniform "unreleased game" response.

Unreleased first party NES protos are pretty well unheard of. You've got Earthbound, FF II, and Sim City, but not much floating around of many others really. Even then only Sim City wasn't a translational port. That being said, sure, those would command the highest price I'd presume as well.

Originally posted by: VideoGameAntiques

Then again, you're much more of an expert on this particular collecting niche, so what do I know .

If I learned anything this month, it's that I pretty much have no better understanding of proto values than anyone else. You're guess is literally as good as mine at this point.

Originally posted by: Ferris Bueller

Originally posted by: MrMark0673

Edit: Case in point: The post directly above this one

Not stepping on toes at all, I think you're right. The thing is though, the view from the outside is that someone spent $55k on a prototype of a released game from a flagship Nintendo series. Whether that person was a proto collector, NES collector, 80's toy collector, etc., people take notice of the item more so than the buyer. I have a feeling that this single sale changed the way people look at prototypes, as well was which will command the highest prices in at the very least, the near future.

Originally posted by: Ferris Bueller

Originally posted by: MrMark0673

Edit: Case in point: The post directly above this one

I might buy a proto, but it would have to be something I hold dear to me. I wouldn't just go buy... let's say, Where's Waldo proto, because I thought that game was lame. But a Megaman proto, that would make my eyebrow raise and ponder selling my soul.

Careful what you say! My first proto purchase was a Mega Man 2 proto with known differences. That opened up a horribly expensive can of worms

Originally posted by: Ferris Bueller

As for cornerstone vs unreleased... A few years ago, wouldn't a proto of an unrealeased game be a bigger deal because of the lack of repros? I mean, why brag about having the proto for... Final Fantasy 2 nowadays, when I can go to the NES Dump or a number of other people and get a copy myself. Dumping roms or whatever they do may have brought down prices on protos of unreleased games.

There are still plenty of unreleased games that are undumped/undistributed. That being said, many proto collectors have said what you said for years (dumping = devaluing) and people disagreed claiming it was just speculation. If historical sales mean anything still, we now know that dumping ROMs decreases the value of the proto. Most of us who did so weren't in it for the money though. I spent $1.5K on Arcadia VI and dumped it for free and have no regrets. $800ish a piece for Swamp Thing and Dragon's Lair for the Genesis as well. If I could go back and do it again, I would every single time.

Originally posted by: Bronty

still, as you said earlier, its not the tirekickers that drive the market... the general perception has changed, but will that change the real market? THat's the $64 question...

Yeah, it's a great question. I'm under the assumption that it will, but not confident enough that I'd bet my savings on it. Pretty much everything I thought I knew about the "market" for prototypes went out the window this month!

-------------------------

www.videogamesage.com...

Edited: 08/14/2012 at 08:40 PM by VGS_MrMark0673

Aug 14, 2012 at 10:54:23 PM

Bronty (65)

(Dan M) < Bonk >

Posts: 18758 - Joined: 11/27/2006

Canada

Profile

Good points Mark... Thx for the replies

-------------------------

Aug 14, 2012 at 11:13:09 PM

MinusWorlds (72)

(Fudge Tastic) < King Solomon >

Posts: 3825 - Joined: 09/09/2011

U.S. Virgin Islands

Profile

The Zelda sale was an anomaly IMO. I thought I knew what I had, it was verified with the sale. Yeah absolutely in the short run I think we will see a spike in prices for sure. Just because Dream isn't asking more doesn't mean people won't pay more post "Zelda."

The Zelda was one-of-a-kind, first party and essentially the launch of Zelda as we know it. Yes I'm quite aware of the FDS No Densetsu blah blah. The PR coverage too was insane, there were over 86K views, 30K views on YouTube and was covered in PCMAG, Yahoo and many others. I don't think we'll see that kind of coverage again anytime soon. I don't think a Contra, MTPO or any other title for that matter could come close to this except maybe the SMB Proto or Mark's SMB/DH/WCTM. There are other carts I think are worth more, okay one cart...Thor's NWC cart.

That's it, I see nothing more valuable IMO.

Particular to Protos I still think completed unreleased games are worth the most with the exceptions like Zelda, FF, SMB etc...

Aug 14, 2012 at 11:13:10 PM

MinusWorlds (72)

(Fudge Tastic) < King Solomon >

Posts: 3825 - Joined: 09/09/2011

U.S. Virgin Islands

Profile

And let me also say...I have no friggin idea what I'm taking about.

Edited: 08/14/2012 at 11:30 PM by MinusWorlds

Aug 16, 2012 at 2:10:14 PM

marvelus10 (46)

( . ) Boobies ( . ) < King Solomon >

Posts: 3282 - Joined: 06/05/2007

British Columbia

Profile

If I was into collecting prototype or was to purchase one for the sake of having one, I think I would be interested in one with multiple differences from the final or of course an unreleased title or even better an undumped unreleased title.

There is one in particular I have always wanted, it is unreleased, dumped and also mapper hacked, but I still want it.

One thing I like about this subject is, as more people jump onto this niche area of collecting, same as sealed box or minty condition the easier it will be for me as a cart only (I don't mind stickers or jiffy marker) collector to finish my collection. So please keep promoting the prototype culture.

P.S. Don't take the last comment as a negative, I find the whole subject of prototype collecting very interesting. I always enjoy reading how someone has found something unique and or different in some way.

-------------------------

Aug 17, 2012 at 5:08:01 AM

VGS_fcgamer (101)

(Dave ) < Bowser >

Posts: 7357 - Joined: 01/22/2008

Pennsylvania

Profile

I used to collect prototypes, and even had several unreleased games pass through my hands. With that said though, I haven't been collecting that stuff for years so maybe I don't know what I am talking about, lol. I feel the Zelda game was an anomaly though, an outlier, something that was sold to a Zelda fan and not necessarily a game collector or prototype collector.

If the theory that popular franchise trumps unreleased when it comes to value, it sort of turns the idea of the dumped proto being worth less than the undumped on its head. At that point, people are valuing the fact that it IS a prototype, as opposed to the actual data (i.e. differences) on the cartridge. Whether the Mega Man prototype has major changes, one or two sprite differences, or is identical to the retail release suddenly becomes irrelevant, and the fact that it is a Mega Man game is most important of all. I honestly don't believe that this trend will happen, as many people who collect prototypes do so due to the history behind them, and an identical copy of the game simply lacks the history and so forth of a unique, work-in-progress title.

I see things remaining pretty much the same, after the Zelda auction disappears from the minds of most. Simply put:

-Unreleased games will command a high price due to the historical value behind them. One of a kind is one of a kind.

-Games that are from popular game franchises will sell for more money, for the obvious reason that they will attract the eyes of collectors and fans alike. Basically that is already happening.

-Games that have known differences will command a higher price than those which don't. If you could own a unique copy of Barbie or one that is identical to retail (both are prototypes), honestly don't tell me that they have an equal appeal.

-------------------------
-----
Family Bits: An Unauthorized, Complete Guide to Famicom, Dendy, and Pegasus

https://famicomfamilybits.wordpre...

Aug 17, 2012 at 1:50:45 PM

Bronty (65)

(Dan M) < Bonk >

Posts: 18758 - Joined: 11/27/2006

Canada

Profile

Originally posted by: tracker465

I used to collect prototypes, and even had several unreleased games pass through my hands. With that said though, I haven't been collecting that stuff for years so maybe I don't know what I am talking about, lol. I feel the Zelda game was an anomaly though, an outlier, something that was sold to a Zelda fan and not necessarily a game collector or prototype collector.

If the theory that popular franchise trumps unreleased when it comes to value, it sort of turns the idea of the dumped proto being worth less than the undumped on its head. At that point, people are valuing the fact that it IS a prototype, as opposed to the actual data (i.e. differences) on the cartridge. Whether the Mega Man prototype has major changes, one or two sprite differences, or is identical to the retail release suddenly becomes irrelevant, and the fact that it is a Mega Man game is most important of all. I honestly don't believe that this trend will happen, as many people who collect prototypes do so due to the history behind them, and an identical copy of the game simply lacks the history and so forth of a unique, work-in-progress title.

I see things remaining pretty much the same, after the Zelda auction disappears from the minds of most. Simply put:

-Unreleased games will command a high price due to the historical value behind them. One of a kind is one of a kind.

-Games that are from popular game franchises will sell for more money, for the obvious reason that they will attract the eyes of collectors and fans alike. Basically that is already happening.

-Games that have known differences will command a higher price than those which don't. If you could own a unique copy of Barbie or one that is identical to retail (both are prototypes), honestly don't tell me that they have an equal appeal.

good take but as to your last sentence, that is exactly what I am going to tell you, because a barbie proto sucks ass either way Zero appeal = zero appeal in either case

-------------------------

Aug 17, 2012 at 2:08:43 PM

MinusWorlds (72)

(Fudge Tastic) < King Solomon >

Posts: 3825 - Joined: 09/09/2011

U.S. Virgin Islands

Profile

Originally posted by: Bronty

good take but as to your last sentence, that is exactly what I am going to tell you, because a barbie proto sucks ass either way Zero appeal = zero appeal in either case

what I'd do for a barbie proto, wait you mean the game, nvmnd

Aug 17, 2012 at 6:16:39 PM

TheRedEye (6)

(Frank Cifaldi) < Meka Chicken >

Posts: 830 - Joined: 11/11/2007

California

Profile

The audience for prototype video games of any kind is always going to be tiny. The audience for collectables for well-known franchises is always going to be larger than that. If you've got a Barbie proto, market it to Barbie collectors, not NES collectors.

-------------------------